Items tagged with: silver
We are on the verge of some very nasty measures to be used against us. One, is the ability to sequester our #finances, because once it goes #digital, there is no way to keep those #funds from the keystrokes of our #enemies. What are we to do about it?...If you do not voluntarily turn your #guns in, they will #freeze your #bank #accounts...The same goes for #retirement funds and other sources of #revenue, perhaps even sales of #gold and #silver will be placed on hold to determine if you have #cooperated with every #political objective of the #government....~
....There is no “getting along” with it, there is only #capitulation.
....There are signs that the general population is growing weary of their #antics, but it is too little, too late. The #global #powers are in #control and will bring about a #devastating #financial #crisis to bring all of us under their #power, then #disarmament, #subjugation and #enslavement.
.....having been #enslaved, what is the #price of #freedom?
If you ever come to Cyprus you should see #cyprushistory in the #lefkaramuseum in #lefkara about #lace #silver production in that area.
#cyprus #quantumlife #cyprussummer #lebeseelischeidentität #livinginparadise #begrateful #seieinheld #admatrix #etmatrix #paxation #zypernurlaub #cyprusholidays
#photography #photooftheday #photo #photographer #picoftheday #love #art #beautiful #follow #beauty #travelphotography #nature #photoshoot #photos #happy #lifestyle #fotografia
Nassim Nicholas Taleb has overplayed his hand this time and is left looking, well, klueless.Photograph by Salzburg Global Seminar…
Article word count: 1648
HN Discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19617578
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Post stats: Points: 150 - Comments: 178 - 2019-04-09T18:25:21Z
#HackerNews #against #bad #case #math #nassim #nate #silver #talebs
Nassim Nicholas Taleb has overplayed his hand this time and is left looking, well, klueless.Photograph by Salzburg Global Seminar / Flickr
Since the midterm elections, a feud has been raging on Twitter between Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight, and Nassim Nicholas Taleb, hedge-fund-manager-turned-mathematical-philosopher and author of The Black Swan. It began, late last year, with Silver boasting about the success of his election models and Taleb shooting back that Silver doesn’t “know how math works.” Silver said Taleb was “consumed by anger” and hadn’t had any new ideas since 2001. The argument has gotten personal, with Silver calling Taleb an “intellectual-yet-idiot” (an insult taken from Taleb’s own book) and Taleb calling Silver “klueless” and “butthurt.” Here is a recap of what they’re fighting about so you can know who’s right (Silver, mostly) and who’s wrong (Taleb).
The origin of Taleb’s ire can be found in Silver’s success since 2008—and his some-time failures. As I described in Nautilus last month, evaluating probabilistic election forecasts can be conceptually slippery, made especially difficult by the counterintuitive properties of mathematical probability. Historically, Silver has received considerable credit, probably too much, for “calling” elections correctly. As his most recent analysis (incorporating at least some of my suggestions!) shows, the more meaningful questions are: 1) How often does something that he gives an n percent chance to actually happen? and 2) How bold are his predictions, in the sense of probabilities being closer to 100 percent rather than long-run averages? In both respects, his models appear to be doing pretty well.
Yet Taleb maintains that Silver (whom he has taken to calling “Bullshit Nate”) is “ignorant of probability,” a “fraud,” and “a total impostor.” Why?
Critiquing—often rudely—the ways people think about uncertainty is the essence of Taleb’s brand. A thesis repeated in his books, backed up by his strategies as an investor, is that we understate the uncertainty concerning rare and extreme events in complex systems. By modeling randomness with assumptions gleaned when conditions are mild, we expose ourselves to unanticipated crises like market crashes. But a savvy investor, taking advantage of a market under-pricing those risks, can make a profit betting on the extremes.
A “black swan”-like critique of the FiveThirtyEight forecasts is likely possible and even valuable.
His complaint is that Silver’s forecast probabilities, particularly in 2016, fluctuated too much leading up to the election. Raising the stakes even more, Taleb has repeatedly hate-tweeted a paper of his, saying Silver’s forecasts were guilty of “stark errors” that, if committed on Wall Street, would have allowed investors to clean him out by means of what’s called “arbitrage.” Taleb, drawing on his financial background, proposed his own model that he claimed was immune to such an attack.
Why does Taleb think finance has anything to say about election forecasting? It has to do with the sometimes-complex relationship between probabilities and prices. Imagine we were placing bets on an event, say, Trump being impeached, in the form of lottery tickets that pay $1 if he is. Suppose I’m willing to pay up to $0.25 for such a ticket. Financial theory can’t say whether that price is right or wrong, but it can say that, were I then offered the complementary ticket paying $1 if he isn’t impeached, the only rationally coherent price I could pay for it is $0.75, because if my price were, say, $0.77 instead, then someone could earn a sure profit of $0.02 by selling me both bets for $1.02. Similarly, if I am required to offer the bets at the same price I quote, then any price less than $0.75 would allow someone to earn a riskless profit by buying both from me.
Today we would call any one of these combinations of bets an arbitrage, meaning an investment with no probability of loss and some probability of profit—a theoretically infinite money pump. The general assumption is that real arbitrage opportunities are, at most, very short-lived, because market forces act immediately to shut off the pump.
Taleb says that Silver’s probabilities would make him a target for arbitrage if they gave the price he would offer on an election bet. Unlike the static version we just considered, the arbitrage would happen as time unfolds. Maybe an investor could “buy” an election forecast when it’s cheap (it claims a low probability of a given candidate being elected) and then “sell” it when the price goes up.
Taleb argues the only right way to do election forecasting is to use the derivative-pricing techniques from mathematical finance. Derivatives are certain kinds of bets on the performance of an underlying security, like a stock. In this case, the “stock” is the voter support for a political candidate, and the bet is on whether that support will exceed a winning threshold on election day, similar to a “binary option” in the financial world.
So, should Silver be scared of losing millions of dollars if he takes Taleb’s bait? In short, maybe but not certainly.
In the 1930s, the Italian statistician and actuary Bruno de Finetti noticed something interesting about these kinds of bets: In order to avoid arbitrage, the prices must obey the same equations as the mathematical rules of probability, meaning such relationships as Price [A]+ Price[NOT A] = 1, and so on. Taleb’s arbitrage-through-time was also known to de Finetti. Suppose, for example, on Monday a forecaster assigns a 40 percent probability to the event CLOUDY = “Tuesday’s sky will be cloudy” and a 30 percent probability to the event CLOUDY & RAINY = “Tuesday’s sky will be cloudy, and it will rain,” and these probabilities are interpreted as prices.
Then we ask the forecaster/bookie: “If we wake up tomorrow and the sky is cloudy (and we have no other new information), what price will you give us for a bet that it will also rain?” De Finetti showed that the only arbitrage-free price for this conditional bet “RAINY GIVEN CLOUDY” is the one consistent with Bayes’ rule of conditional probability:
Price[RAINY GIVEN CLOUDY] = Price[CLOUDY & RAINY] / Price
Taleb’s wires get crossed, and as a result his argument borders on nonsense.
In this example, the price should be (0.3)/(0.4) = 0.75. If the forecaster gave too high a price, say 0.90, then through a clever combination of transactions:
* BUY a bet of $1 on CLOUDY & RAINY * BUY a bet of $0.75 on NOT CLOUDY * SELL a bet of $0.15 on CLOUDY * If we see that it is cloudy, SELL a bet of $1 on RAINY
we could make a profit of $0.06 no matter what scenario unfolds. We could just as well make that $6 million, or however much we like, by increasing the amounts until we had emptied the forecaster’s bank account.
Derivative-pricing in a consistent way that avoids arbitrage is a difficult problem (worthy of a Nobel prize)! An extended form of de Finetti’s argument is at the heart of the modern solution, in what’s now called the “Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing”: if prices are consistent, then they form a set of probabilities, meaning the equations of probabilities are satisfied.
Unfortunately, Taleb’s wires get crossed here, and as a result his argument borders on nonsense. The converse to the statement above is also true: if prices form a set of probabilities, then they are consistent. Since Silver’s forecasts begin with probability models, it’s safe to assume they obey all the rules, including Bayes’, and would be arbitrage-free. Taleb’s procedure is therefore sufficient but not necessary, making his choice of model doubly unnecessary.
Taleb’s real discomfort with Silver’s bouncing probabilities is less about arbitrage than it is about the relationship between past and future volatility. As I illustrated last month, even for a simple “random walk” model of elections—where a candidate’s support goes up or down every day according to a coin-flip—if the past and future polling volatilities are the same, then a candidate’s chance of winning will have the same amount of variability whether the polls are fairly stable or bouncing around. In both cases, the chance of winning may fluctuate dramatically. Again, since these are exact probabilities computed in the same way Taleb’s are, there is no possibility for arbitrage.
In order for Taleb’s desired steady forecast probabilities to manifest, the uncertainty in the future polls would need to always be greater than the observed volatility of polls in the past. This is a valid “black swan”-like criticism that he could have made but didn’t: that we should not understate future uncertainty given our past experience observing mild fluctuations in the polls; otherwise we might get blindsided by an event like former director of the F.B.I. James Comey’s letter to Congress.
In mathematical finance, derivatives depend on a traded asset like a stock with a known market price. What’s uncertain is whether that price will reach the threshold necessary for a derivative to pay off. In the world of election forecasting, the “price” before election day can only be guessed at based on polling data, so there is uncertainty both around how voters’ opinions will change and also what those opinions are at any given time. Figuring out the latter is what Silver’s models excel at, and this complication makes the whole framework of derivative-pricing arguably inapplicable here, which is no great loss since there was no need for it in the first place.
A “black swan”-like critique of the FiveThirtyEight forecasts is likely possible and even valuable. It may be that investors like Taleb, who think Silver’s probabilities are wrong, could earn a profit on average by betting on them—like taking advantage of a casino offering the wrong odds—but they could not claim those profits were risk-free. But by accusing Silver of arbitrage and trying to apply his financial expertise to elections, Taleb has overplayed his hand this time and is left looking, well, klueless.
Aubrey Clayton is a mathematician living in Boston.
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4/17/06 From The Lord, Our God and Savior
The Word of The Lord Spoken to Timothy
For All Those Who Have Ears to Hear
Thus says The Lord God: This #world is stricken, a corrupt #tree which bears only bitter #fruit! You have done this, O peoples of the #earth! You have done this, O #men of #power and #wealth, all you #people of excess! YOU HAVE DONE THIS! For the sake of #greed, to fulfill your insatiable appetites and ever-increasing lusts, YOU HAVE DESTROYED THE #GARDEN!
Therefore #cut down the tree and #burn the #branches! #Break apart the #stump and pull up the #roots!... For thus declares The Lord: As you have sown, SO SHALL YOU REAP! And that which you have withheld from the #poor and the #needy shall be taken from you, and you shall suffer! Behold, even all you have wrought in the earth shall return atop your own# heads, for I shall #strike you down and #lay you waste! - Desolation upon #desolation, #calamity upon calamity, #plagues and #famine until you are utterly consumed!
_Behold, My people are afflicted,
And My #faithful ones are persecuted,
#Imprisoned and put to #death!
My little ones are brought to #harm,
And the #innocent are murdered in droves,
CAST OFF AS REFUSE!...
Therefore the #afflicted shall be
Given #wealth beyond imagining,
And the #meek shall #inherit the earth;
The little ones shall be taken,
And the innocent shall return #home...
And they shall be My #sons and #daughters,
Forever, #life without end._
Yet you, O most wicked #generation, shall be #cut off! I shall #cast you out, and you shall remain outside the #gates! For I do not know you! Says The Lord... There shall be wailing and gnashing of #teeth.
For thus says The Lord to the generation of His wrath: As a #lion #springs forth suddenly from its hiding place and lays hold of the #prey, so shall I break the #neck of this #generation and #drag it away, until every last #remnant of your wickedness is devoured! Behold, you shall be broken without #hand, and the wickedness which dwells in the midst of you shall be torn in pieces!... And who among the #nations shall #deliver you from the #mouth of The Lion?!
For I am risen up in My #anger, I am come forth in My fury! Therefore let every way #crack and every #foundation crumble; let the earth give way! Let the high places fall with a great #crash, and let every false image perish before the #great and #awesome #power of The Lord!
See, your #wealth has come to nothing, O peoples of the earth. For as it is written: Your wealth shall rot away, your #fine #clothes shall be #eaten by #moths, your #gold and #silver shall become worthless, and shall be for a #witness against you in the Day of #Wrath, and shall #eat your #flesh like #fire. Thus all the #treasure, which you have heaped up against the Day, shall #bury you.
Therefore #kneel, kneel before The Lord of Hosts,# humble yourselves before The #King! #Kiss The #Son! For in #YahuShua alone is your #salvation, in #Messiah alone is there #deliverance in the Day of Wrath, your only #escape. For He is The #Lamb; behold, He is also The Lion!... Yet you will forsake Him in the name of another.
Did you think, O most wicked generation, the #man of #perdition could #save you from the Day of Wrath?! Did you think you could #escape the Day of Judgment, which I pronounced from the beginning?! You are #deceived, even as he is deceived!
_For the reign of evil shall be abolished,
The wicked stricken and the evil of #heart blotted out,
Extinguished in the #lake of My burning #heart!...
For My heart is set ablaze in My anger,
And My #countenance #burns like a raging fire;
My sadness is #infinite, the #weight of
Unending #sorrow covers Me...
For as I #live, says The Lord,
I take no #pleasure in the #destruction
Of the #wicked, but call all in the earth
To #repent, to turn from their #evil ways...
And return to Me._
#prophecy #prophet #Jesus #Yeshua #Christ #Messiah #God #church #bible #scripture #christian #christianity #JesusChrist #HolySpirit #Savior #Saviour #Lord
4/7/06 From The Lord, Our God and Savior
The Word of The Lord Spoken to Timothy
For All Those Who Have Ears to Hear
Thus says The God of #Israel, Lord of #Heaven and #Earth, of all that is seen and unseen, known and unknown, The God of all: There is One #Truth, One Absolute, One Constant in all creation, in whom the fullness of God dwells - #YahuShua #HaMashiach.
All else is #fantasy, great vexation of #spirit. For the #people are #corrupt; by the deceits of their own #hearts are they led away. My #beloved are misled, they have all gone astray, a whole #generation scattered upon the #wind. For the ways of #men are an abhorrence to Me, their every #religion is an #abomination. The sins of men are great, and their iniquity increases beyond #measure.
Behold, they make for themselves #molded #images, useless #things, and by the #mouths of wicked men every false way is upheld in vain. For the people have no #knowledge, nor do they #understand. They are perverse, a most wicked generation, a people who hold out their #cup with both #hands, that they might fill themselves with abomination. Behold, the #broth of abominable things is in their #vessels, yet they are eager to #drink. They are #foolish and can not discern.
The works of men are #evil, even from their #youth. Thus the little #children shall be My inheritance, and the #babes My #jewels. For the #innocent come forth as #lights shining out of darkness, #gifts born from the #womb. They are #precious; to be #cherished is every #child in their youth. For the innocent are of more #value than #gold and #silver, prized above #precious #stones.
Therefore, woe to this #world and all who dwell in it! WOE TO ALL WHO AFFLICT MY LITTLE ONES! SAYS THE LORD. For I shall #strike the #earth in My #wrath and punish the wicked! I shall strike the earth, and bring swift #discipline upon all who #lead My people from The Truth! In My great #anger, I shall strike them down and bring everlasting #punishment upon the evil of heart, for #death is #reserved for the wicked! - A #valley of #dead and #dry #bones, #darkness and #blackness, a void of lifeless nothingness!
Behold, I shall pour out in My anger and #destroy in My fury! With #eternal #fire, I shall take #vengeance upon all My enemies, until they are utterly consumed! For thus is the second death prepared for the wicked; thus is the second death, in which the evil of heart shall be consumed: #Destruction and #annihilation, blotted out!... The death of which the #redeemed in #Messiah need not #fear; for they have passed from death to #Life, from despair to #Joy, and from #judgment to #Salvation; bought for a #price, purchased in #blood, the blood of The #Lamb.
Therefore come to Me, My beloved little ones,
For you know My face!...
Come forth, O sons and daughters of God,
For The Lord has redeemed you!...
Come out, My people,
For The Holy One of Israel has called you by name!
Do not look back, nor hesitate. Turn not the #head, nor #twist the #shoulder. Beloved ones, do not look back! For abomination dwells there, #Sodom and #Gomorrah! Thus the #time of My #watchmen has come, the #Day of #Punishment is made #clear. Behold, it waits at the #doors and is about to come in, terrible judgment poured out without mixture! - Destruction of the #cities! The distress of all #nations! WOE TO THE SONS OF MEN! WOE TO THE INHABITANTS OF THE EARTH, FOR NOW SHALL BE YOUR PERPLEXITY! SAYS THE LORD.
Therefore, thus says The Lord God: Great #patience and steadfast #faith is required. For #great and terrible things are coming, days which have no equal. For upon the #earth, evil of every kind proliferates unfettered. Iniquity is upheld and #righteousness is trampled underfoot. Damnable #heresies are taught in the churches, and #blasphemy is heard within the #synagogues. #Temples of false gods #litter the #face of the earth, and #mosques #pollute the #land like a #plague - abomination, blasphemies without end, lies upon lies fed to the masses as truth! Shall I not come forth and destroy?! Shall I not come out swiftly and take vengeance upon My enemies?! Shall I not bring swift destruction upon them, until not one #stone is left upon another?!
THE DAYS ARE EVIL! The light of the eye has darkened, iniquity fills the heart, and sins of every #kind come forth from the people without respite! They do not relent, nor has one truly turned aside! For out of the abundance of the #heart the #mouth speaks, and those void of the #Spirit can not #discern. Therefore those with unclean #lips #prosper, and the desolate #kiss them upon the #mouth.
For this is a most vile #generation, a wholly ignorant and deceived people who can not discern, nor will they consider. For they #hate the one who rebukes at the #gate, and despise the one who #speaks a #message from God. Shall I not cause the earth to tremble for this?! Shall it not break apart under their #feet?! For I shall open the #mouth of #sheol, and a great multitude shall fall into it. The #nations shall #mourn, and all those who remain shall be overcome with #grief. For from the least, even to the greatest, they have all forsaken The Word of The Lord!
Therefore, I call My beloved to choose #starvation, to forsake all this worldly #food. For only that which comes down from #Heaven has life in it, and only those who #eat of the #manna which I shall give them shall be satisfied; yea, they shall be lifted up, #high upon #healing #wings! For this world is awash in #sin, every cup overflows with abomination, every way leads to death. Thus those who take #pleasure in unrighteousness shall be #cut off, and those who choose evil shall be #condemned. And so it begins, the short #season of him #cast down, when evil reigns in all the earth.
Thus says The Lord, The Risen One: Therefore, I call My beloved ones to be #sober and vigilant, because their enemy, the adversary, stalks about like a roaring #lion, seeking whom he might devour. Behold, he stalks his #prey and grabs hold by that which dwells within their hearts. Therefore, beloved, take every #thought captive and resist the #devil. Believe not the lies, nor give into fear, nor doubt; be steadfast, immovable, abounding in #faith. For I am with you. For as it is written: I am the #image of The #Invisible God, The Firstborn over all #creation. By Me were all things created, both #visible and invisible, in the heavens and on earth. Whether thrones or dominions, or principalities or powers, all things that are and were created were created through Me and for Me. I am before all things, and in Me all things consist.
Therefore, give heed to My #words and understand. For as I had spoken to My friends in times past, so now do I also %speak to you. For the #time has come and is coming and is already here, when all #signs and wonders shall be made manifest, when all #prophecy shall be fulfilled. Rejoice, for your #redemption draws near! And though the time of great sorrows has come in, hold #fast, for these days shall be shortened... No more #pain, no more #tears, no more death, all sorrows passing away, #rebirth, a time of refreshing which shall never end.
Therefore, #remember My words and have #peace:
One #Son, The Only #Way to The #Father...
One Truth, One Word, One Messiah, One Spirit;
One #Food, One #Bread and One Drink...
Of which I am all,
The All in All.
#prophecy #prophet #Jesus #Yeshua #Christ #Messiah #God #church #bible #scripture #christian #christianity #JesusChrist #HolySpirit #Savior #Saviour #Lord